Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE, Dele Kelvin Oye Esq., has said Nigeria’s much-celebrated economic growth does not reflect the daily reality of millions of its citizens, noting that the country is experiencing a troubling paradox where GDP rises without tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.
Speaking at the Lagos Country Club Business Forum 2.0 in Lagos, Oye, who is Life Vice-President & 22nd National President, NACCIMA, said Nigeria is a nation of immense potential, often applauded for its expanding Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but “rising prices, unstable employment, and the challenges of running businesses in a volatile environment paint a starkly different picture.”
Referencing a recent economic data showing 3.98% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the non-oil sector, Oye explained that this widening disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and lived realities represents, “the Nigerian puzzle of growth that leaves people behind.”
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According to him, “Nigeria is a nation of immense potential, often celebrated for its growing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and expanding economy. Yet, for millions of Nigerians, this narrative feels disconnected from their daily realities. Rising prices, unstable employment, and the challenges of running businesses in a volatile environment paint a starkly different picture.
“This paradox of ‘growth without progress’ is the defining economic challenge of our time. This paper seeks to bridge the gap between the optimistic economic data and the lived experiences of Nigerians. It provides a diagnostic view of the underlying issues, evaluates policy choices, and proposes a clear roadmap toward a future in which economic growth translates into tangible improvements in the lives of all Nigerians.
“The Nigerian Puzzle of Growth That Leaves People Behind Despite reported GDP growth of 3.98% in the 2025 quarter, driven by the non-oil sector, millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with inflation, unemployment, and poverty.”
Citing the World Bank’s 2025 report that revealed that over 139 million Nigerians live in poverty, Oye said the report highlights the stark disparity between economic growth and majority of our citizens’ quality of life, adding, “This disconnect is a result of structural issues that have plagued the economy for decades. The economic engine may be running, but it is leaving most of its passengers behind.
The challenge lies in transforming growth from a mere statistic into tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.”
On addressing the crisis, Oye who is also the Chairman of the Nigeria Turkiye Business Council noted, “To address the rising cost of living, we must first understand the root causes of Nigeria’s persistent inflation. This economic ailment is driven by a ‘two-headed monster’:
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Demand-Pull Inflation: Excess liquidity in the economy, fueled by public-sector deficits and heavy borrowing, has led to too much money chasing too few goods. This imbalance has stoked inflationary pressures, making everyday goods and services increasingly expensive.
“Cost-Push Inflation: The cost of producing goods in Nigeria is exorbitant due to an unstable exchange rate, unreliable power supply, poor infrastructure, and overregulation. These factors force businesses to pass high costs onto consumers, further exacerbating inflation
“Involution: There is a third arm called involution. It is a general fall in prices of goods due to unhealthy competition without real growth or structural improvement.”
Identifying some government’s response to the issue, Oye said, “The government’s primary response to inflation has been through monetary policy, with the Central Bank raising interest rates to 27% and maintaining a Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of 45%. However, this approach has failed to address the root causes of inflation.
“It has made borrowing prohibitively expensive for the private sector, with commercial banks charging interest rates of 29-33% per annum.
“While the Central Bank of Nigeria should be commended for maintaining a disciplined fiscal policy, however, the recent improvements in inflation and economic growth are primarily attributed to private-sector initiatives and exchange rate stabilisation.
“The Dangote Refinery, for instance, has significantly reduced foreign exchange demand for importing refined petroleum products, stabilising the Naira and boosting energy security. This highlights the critical role of empowering productive enterprises in achieving macroeconomic stability.”
“President Tinubu’s policies, such as the naira-for-crude initiative and industry incentives, have encouraged private-sector confidence. However, resistance from certain government officials has hindered the full implementation of these initiatives, affecting the survival of private enterprises,” he added.
In his recommendations, Oye said, “The path to a revitalised Nigeria is not paved with excuses but with coordinated, courageous action. Our present struggles are not our destiny; they are not the result of natural disasters; they are the man-made consequences of current and past policy failures and weak institutions.
“The blueprints for reform, the economic data, the policy recommendations, and the global best practices are all forms of knowledge. We have collected the facts. We know the recipes for fiscal stability, institutional integrity, and private-sector growth. But knowledge alone is not enough. The crucial missing ingredient is WISDOM; the ability to connect the dots.
“The smartest nation is not the one that knows the most, but the one that understands what truly matters. For too long, we have memorised the solutions without internalising their meaning. We know the statistics on poverty, but do we truly grasp the human cost?
“We can list the clauses of our constitution, but do we honour the spirit of justice they represent? While knowledge fills our minds with reports and strategies, it is wisdom that must shape our nation’s existence.”
He continued: “This gap is most glaring when we examine our moral and religious convictions, especially within our nation’s current challenges with insurgency. We build mega churches and giant mosques on streets with no clean water, no schools and no hospitals. We raise hands in worship on Sunday, then raise bribes on Monday. And through it all, we say it is well, truth is, God is not the problem, we are.
“We’ve allowed religion to replace responsibility. We blame the devil for everything, even the things we caused with our own hands. Faith itself is not the problem; it remains a powerful force for compassion and resilience. The problem is how it has been misused in Nigeria: to justify violence, shield criminals, or distract us from responsibility.
“We fast and pray for good governance while tolerating bad leaders. We worship for miracles while ignoring planning, discipline, and accountability. This moral failure among leaders, institutions, and citizens has helped incubate the current insecurity that plagues us as a nation. This is the ultimate failure of wisdom: possessing the knowledge of right and wrong but failing to make the right choices.
“Nigeria is not beyond repair, but time is short. We must stop merely collecting economic data and start creating meaningful livelihoods for our people. We must move beyond knowing we are at a crossroads to wisely choosing the right path. This requires us to ask which questions are truly worth asking: not just “how do we grow the economy?” but “how do we build a just society?” Not just “how do we secure our borders?” but “how do we secure our shared humanity?”
“Knowledge may live in policy papers; wisdom must live in the choices we make. As a nation at a crossroads, we must face the human cost of past and present policies. Unchecked inflation has driven millions toward poverty, and we cannot stand idly by while 139 million Nigerians suffer. Knowledge divorced from compassionate action becomes a hollow burden.”
Oye added, “Nigeria’s economic reforms have yielded mixed results. Addressing structural and governance challenges is crucial for sustainable growth. A holistic approach is needed to drive economic transformation and reduce poverty. True nation‑building binds wisdom to empathy and reforms that restore dignity.”
