From Jude Chukwudi
When people are driven by emotion, they are most likely to arrive at a conclusion without considering the facts.
Many applauded the 2023 general election in Nigeria as a free and fair poll. However, there are others who claimed it was rigged and didn’t reflect the wishes of the voters.
As a non-partisan analyst, I have taken my time to examine if there are facts to back the claim of rigging during the poll.
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The facts are there that the 2023 general election was the most keenly contested and threw up major upsets since the return of democracy in 1999.
How can an election that threw up major upsets be rigged? How can an election with so called big political parties losing key states and positions to so-called ‘parties without structure’ be judged to be unfair?
The presidential race was as close as never seen before since Nigerians started voting to elect their leaders in 1999. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the winning candidate, accumulated 8.8 million votes, just 1.8 million votes ahead of Atiku Abubakar in second and 2.7 million votes more than Peter Obi. In contrast, President Buhari won the 2019 Elections by nearly 4 million votes. In 2007, Umaru Yar’ Adua of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, secured over twenty-six million votes, representing over 69% of total vote cast to emerge as the president. Buhari of the then All Nigeria People Party came second with a paltry six million votes. Atiku Abubakar had 2.6m votes to place third in the poll.
Such was the fate of elections in Nigeria that newspapers were led with stories of landslide victories both at federal and state levels. However, the 2023 elections were not decided by landslide victories. In fact, most winners were not certain of victories until all the results had been collated from all polling units, unlike in the past when winners were declared when collation of votes were still ongoing in some units.
How did INEC compromise an election that was keenly contested? If the commission was corrupt, wouldn’t it have been easier to award ‘landslide’ victories as we had in the past?
I am at a loss as to which party or contender corrupted INEC in the poll. Common sense will dictate that deep-pocket parties and politicians would be the likely suspects. However, the results of the 2023 elections showed otherwise as so-called small parties recorded major victories. Isn’t that enough proof to show that Prof Mahmood Yakubu and his team were incorruptible, preserving the integrity of our poll.
Before the 2023 general elections, several political pundits had dismissed the Labour Party (LP) as a movement without a proper structure. The party was described with so many unprintable names, some even claimed it was only active on social media but the party caused major upsets across the country.
One of the major upsets witnessed on January 25 was the shocking victory of the LP in the presidential election in the entire South-East region. In 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, the PDP got majority votes in the South-East part of the country at the presidential and National Assembly elections. However, this changed during this year’s elections as the region proved it was done with the PDP and had become one of the LP’s strongholds.
The second shocker during the election was the victory of the LP in Edo and Cross River. In the previous presidential elections, the two states had been won by the PDP, but the LP ensured that this did not happen on February 25.
As of the time of conducting the election, LP had no elected governor, senators, member of the House of Representatives or state lawmakers in any of the states. In fact, the party could not even boast of a councilor going into the poll, yet it caused major upset in these states.
The third upset was the victory of the LP in Nasarawa and Plateau states where the APC had won in the 2019 presidential election. Instructive is the fact that the then National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Adamu, was not just from Nasarawa state, he was a former governor and senator, yet the LP won the state.
It was the same in Plateau where Simon Bako Lalong was both a sitting governor and the Director General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council. How was the election in these states rigged? Were they rigged in favour of LP which many claimed had no structure? A party that didn’t have deep-pocket and was funded by individuals.
This is not all.
The fourth major upset was the triumph of the LP in Delta, which was governed by the vice-presidential candidate of the PDP, Ifeanyi Okowa. A Vice Presidential candidate who was a sitting governor with his party in full control of almost all elected positions in the state couldn’t deliver the needed votes for his party.
The fifth major upset was engineered by the APC, which frustrated the Taraba South senatorial bid by Governor Darius Ishaku, who was defeated by the APC’s David Jimkuta.
The sixth upset was Ishaku’s loss of his Takum Local Government Area to Peter Obi of the LP, meaning he could not deliver his local government to his party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar. This is a sitting governor losing both his senatorial election as well as failing to win his own local government in the presidential election.
The PDP also caused some upsets, one of which was Governor Ben Ayade’s loss of Cross River North senatorial bid to incumbent Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe of the PDP. The PDP also won the majority seats in the APC-dominated Kaduna State, grabbing the presidential election and all the senatorial seats in the state. The party also claimed 10 House of Reps seats in the state.
The eight major upset was Governor Okezie Ikpeazu’s loss of Abia South senatorial election to Enyinnaya Abaribe of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Abaribe defected to APGA few days to the poll when he was denied the ticket of the PDP. This clearly indicated that the poll was won by the most popular candidate.
The ninth upset was Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi’s Enugu North senatorial defeat to the LP candidate, Okey Ezea.
The 10th major upset was the Governor Samuel Ortom’s loss of Benue North West Senatorial District to his former aide, who was the candidate of the APC, Titus Zam.
Another shocker was APC Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu’s loss of Nasarawa South Senatorial election to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) counterpart, Ahmed Wadada.
The National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Adamu, lost his polling unit to the Labour Party.
The APC national chair cast his vote at Angwarimi Ward, GRA A1, LERCEST Office in Keffi, Nasarawa State. In the presidential poll result, the LP presidential candidate polled 132 votes while the APC came second with 85 votes.
The 12th shocker was the PDP’s loss of all the House of Representatives and senatorial seats to the LP and the APGA in Anambra State. This has never happened since 1999 when Nigeria returned to democratic rule.
The 13th shocker was the LP’s victory in the presidential election in Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, which has never happened since 1999.
Obi’s Labour Party floored Bola Tinubu in Lagos State. That’s the first in over two decades the Lion of Bourdillon could suffer such an electoral loss in his well-guarded political den since 1999. Having served as a two-term governor in the state between 1999 and 2007 and a Senator for Lagos West during the brief Third Republic, many pro-Tinubu supporters regard him as the “builder of Lagos.”
Many had expected Tinubu to win Lagos at the polls, being his touted stronghold.
However, even despite having a sitting governor under the APC, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Obi floored the ‘Jagaban of Borgu’ in Lagos.
Based on the collation of results at the INEC collation centre in Yaba, LP won nine local government areas of the state.
The LGAs are Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin, Eti-Osa, Ikeja, Kosofe, Oshodi-Isolo, Somolu, Ojo and Alimosho.
It polled a total of 575,735 votes while Tinubu’s APC garnered a total of 573,001 votes, which was however, a close margin.
Atiku had 75,750 votes while Kwankwaso had 88,442 votes.
Another upset was the victory of a motorcycle rider and candidate of the LP, Donatus Mathew, in the Kaura Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives in Southern Kaduna.
The Governor of Kebbi State, Atiku Bagudu, lost his senatorial bid to Senator Adamu Aliero of the PDP. Aliero scored 126,588 votes to defeat Bagudu, who polled 92,389 votes.
Popular musician, Olubankole Wellington (Banky W) of the PDP, and Babajide Obanikoro, son of the former Minister of Defence, Musiliu Obanikoro, of the APC, lost Eti-Osa House of Representatives seat to the candidate of the Labour Party. INEC declared Thaddeus Attah of the LP winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives.
Attah won with 24,075 votes, beating his counterparts, Banky W of the PDP, who had 18,666 votes, and Obanikoro of the APC, who had 16, 901 votes.
The Presidential Candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, won the election in President Muhammadu Buhari’s state, Katsina.
Abubakar secured a total of 489,045 to edge out Tinubu who polled 482,283 votes. This serves as a big blow to the ruling APC as Governor Bello Masari is known to be very influential in the state. A sitting president couldn’t deliver his state for his party in an election that some claimed was unfair, how is that possible? Which other sitting President has ever failed to win his state? None.
Kano state governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, lost his local government area to the presidential candidate of New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Ganduje is from Ganduje village in Dawakin Tofa LGA of Kano state. In the results announced by the returning officer, Ganduje’s APC scored 16,773 votes while NNPP scored 25,072 votes.
Atiku scored 2,477 votes while Peter Obi of the Labour Party got 202 votes.
A critical look at these upset points to the fact that the election was determined by popular votes.
In Nigeria, hardly do the ruling party lose key states but in this poll, the APC lost Lagos and Kano to the oppositions despite having sitting governors in those states. LP won in polling units where they had no agents because electoral officials upheld the integrity of the exercise.
Facts are sacred while opinions are free. This is a popular saying with profound meaning and it is imperative for anyone that alleges to prove. I hope those who accused the respected Professor of History, Yakubu Mahmood, would be bold enough to admit these facts and praise the incorruptible man, who upheld the sanctity of our electoral process. History will be kind to the Professor of History.
Chukwudi writes from Awka, Anambra state
