The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concerns over the sharp resurgence in petrol imports into Nigeria, questioning the continued approval of large import volumes despite the expansion of domestic refining capacity.
The policy advocacy group said Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports rose from an average of 5.9 million litres per day in May 2026 to 18.1 million litres per day in June, representing a 206.8 per cent increase, before climbing further to 19.7 million litres per day in July.
The surge means imported petrol accounted for 43.3 per cent of total PMS receipts in July, compared with just 12.4 per cent in May, according to figures cited by CPPE from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s June and July 2026 monthly statistics.
The development has raised questions about the basis for the renewed import approvals at a time when Nigeria’s refining landscape has undergone a major transformation, with large scale private refineries increasing domestic production capacity.
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In a policy brief released on Sunday, CPPE said petroleum product imports should serve as a “transparent supply gap instrument” rather than become a parallel market capable of displacing adequate domestic production.
The organisation argued that import approvals should only be granted where there is clear and independently verifiable evidence that domestic refiners cannot meet the required demand in terms of volume, quality or competitive pricing.
CPPE said the issue was not about banning petroleum imports or protecting domestic refiners from competition, but about ensuring that regulatory decisions were based on transparent market information.
It called on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to publish a product by product assessment showing domestic production, consumption, inventories, committed refinery deliveries, exports and the precise volume of any residual supply gap before approving significant import volumes.
The group said the regulatory framework should give qualified domestic refiners a fair and time bound opportunity to meet any identified shortfall, with imports restricted to the remaining gap.
“Petroleum product imports should function as a transparent supply gap instrument — not as a parallel market that displaces adequate domestic production,” CPPE said.
The organisation’s position comes against the backdrop of increased domestic refining capacity. CPPE noted that Dangote Refinery reported a test run above 700,000 barrels per day in June, while NMDPRA had reported domestic refineries operating at an average capacity utilisation of 99.12 per cent in April.
It also pointed to the increase in Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports as evidence that aggregate refining capacity may no longer be the binding constraint it once was.
For CPPE, the sharp increase in imports therefore requires greater transparency from regulators, particularly on what constitutes the current domestic supply gap and how the approved import volumes were determined.
The organisation warned that allowing imports without a clearly demonstrated shortfall could undermine refinery utilisation, discourage investment and weaken the economic benefits expected from Nigeria’s transition towards domestic refining.
It said every avoidable litre of imported petrol creates additional foreign exchange demand through product costs, freight, insurance and associated charges, whereas domestic refining allows a greater proportion of economic value to remain within Nigeria.
CPPE also linked the issue to employment and industrialisation, arguing that refining supports a wide network of activities spanning engineering, maintenance, laboratories, transportation, storage, maritime services and professional services.
It further warned that uncertainty over import policy could affect future investment in Nigeria’s refining industry, particularly because refinery projects require large amounts of long term capital.
“If investors believe permits will admit imports irrespective of verified domestic availability, expected refinery utilisation and cash flow become less bankable,” the group said, warning that this could delay refinery expansions and discourage new projects.
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CPPE nevertheless cautioned against replacing import dependence with protectionism. It proposed a policy framework built around “domestic supply first, competition always, imports only for verified gaps.”
Under the proposed framework, domestic refiners would still be required to compete on quality and price, while imported products would be allowed whenever domestic supply was insufficient or failed to meet specified requirements.
The group also called for equal quality standards for domestic and imported petroleum products, transparent pricing benchmarks and stronger competition oversight to prevent monopoly pricing or abuse of market power by domestic refiners.
CPPE recommended that NMDPRA publish monthly national supply and demand balances showing refinery output, domestic evacuation, inventories, consumption, exports, imports and stock sufficiency days.
It also urged the regulator to introduce objective triggers for emergency imports, based on factors such as minimum stock levels, refinery outages and delivery failures, rather than relying on discretionary approvals without publicly available evidence.
The group further called for closer coordination between NMDPRA and the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission to ensure that domestic refineries have reliable access to crude oil.
According to CPPE, restricting imports without ensuring adequate crude supply to local refineries would be internally inconsistent and could create another form of supply disruption.
The organisation’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria had reached a critical point in the evolution of its downstream petroleum sector and could no longer continue to manage the industry as though the country remained structurally dependent on imported refined products.
CPPE argued that the objective should now be to build a competitive domestic refining ecosystem in which efficient local producers are given a fair opportunity to supply the Nigerian market, while imports remain available as a contingency mechanism whenever genuine supply gaps emerge.
The group said such an approach would help conserve foreign exchange, support domestic jobs, deepen industrial value chains and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security without creating a monopoly for any individual refinery.
The renewed debate over petrol imports comes as Nigeria’s downstream sector adjusts to the emergence of large scale domestic refining capacity, placing greater pressure on regulators to balance consumer interests, competition, energy security and the government’s broader industrialisation objectives.
