The Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) Ltd/GTE, Dele Oye, has warned that Nigeria requires an estimated $100 billion annually and about $2.3 trillion over the next two decades to bridge its widening infrastructure deficit, describing the country as a nation where citizens have increasingly been forced to provide for themselves what government should ordinarily deliver.
Oye, who is the immediate past President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), raised the concern in a policy brief titled The Broken Windows of Nigeria: How Government Neglect Forged a Nation of Self-Reliant Survivists and the Uncommon Path to True Greatness.
According to him, Nigeria’s infrastructure stock currently stands at only 35 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to about 70 per cent in developed economies, a shortfall he said continues to undermine economic growth, productivity and investor confidence.
He argued that decades of neglect of critical public services have created a parallel economy where households and businesses now privately provide electricity, water, security, healthcare and other essential services that should ordinarily be delivered by the state.
“The persistent collapse of public infrastructure has forced Nigerians into self survival,” Oye said.
He identified electricity as one of the clearest examples, noting that repeated national grid failures and unreliable power supply have compelled millions of homes and businesses to depend on petrol and diesel generators, significantly increasing both the cost of living and the cost of doing business.
The economic policy expert also expressed concern over Nigeria’s worsening healthcare crisis, warning that the continued migration of medical professionals threatens the country’s ability to provide quality healthcare.
According to the report, about 16,000 doctors have left Nigeria within five years, leaving only 55,000 doctors to cater for a population of more than 230 million people.
The report further noted that Nigeria currently has just 2.9 doctors for every 10,000 people, far below the World Health Organisation’s recommended ratio of 17 doctors per 10,000 population.
Oye added that more than 80 per cent of healthcare workers surveyed indicated plans to emigrate, describing the trend as one of the greatest threats facing Nigeria’s health sector.
While acknowledging ongoing reforms in the power and health sectors, he maintained that isolated interventions would not be sufficient unless government consistently delivers basic public services.
He said Nigeria’s recurring failures in electricity, healthcare, transportation, water supply and security reflect what the report described as the “Broken Windows” phenomenon, where prolonged neglect of public institutions normalises dysfunction and forces citizens to rely on private alternatives.
To reverse the trend, Oye proposed a national commitment to guarantee access to basic public services, the establishment of a Citizen Dividend Fund to compensate Nigerians for self-provision of infrastructure, programmes to attract skilled professionals in the diaspora back home, preservation of institutional knowledge and the creation of a National Truth and Restitution Commission to rebuild trust between government and citizens.
Warning that Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads, Oye said continued institutional decline could further weaken the country’s economy and governance.
“The windows are breaking faster than they can be counted. But the building still stands. The occupants still live,” he said.
“The generator’s roar is not the sound of resilience. It is the sound of a cry for help. The vigilante’s patrol is not a sign of community spirit. It is the sign of a state that has failed to protect. The doctor’s departure is not the pursuit of personal ambition. It is the verdict of a system that has abandoned its healers.”
