Accord Party chieftain, Dr Gbenga Olawepo Hashim, has said Nigeria can ultimately bring the price of petrol down to between N200 and N300 per litre, arguing that his proposed N605 to N610 starting price is only the first step in a broader restructuring of the country’s petroleum value chain.
Olawepo Hashim said an Accord administration in 2027 would pursue cheaper petrol without returning Nigeria to the opaque subsidy regime that characterised the sector before the 2023 reform.
In a statement, he argued that the central question should not simply be how much petrol costs on the international market, but how much it actually costs Nigeria to produce crude, refine it and deliver finished petroleum products to consumers.
Using a domestic crude production cost benchmark of $45 per barrel, together with a $15 margin over an industry upper limit cost of $30, Olawepo Hashim arrived at a crude related cost of about $57 per barrel for his illustrative model.
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He noted that a standard barrel contains 159 litres and calculated that dividing the $57 benchmark by 159 litres produces a figure of roughly $0.36 per litre. At an illustrative exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar, this translates to about N502 per litre.
He then added estimated refining costs of $5 per barrel and about $7 per barrel for distribution, transportation and insurance, before proposing an Energy Stabilisation Tax of approximately N104 per litre to arrive at a petrol price of around N605 per litre.
Olawepo Hashim stressed that the N605 to N610 figure should be regarded as a starting benchmark rather than a complete refinery cost calculation. His framework acknowledges that crude oil is processed into a basket of products, including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and LPG, rather than producing 159 litres of petrol from every barrel.
The broader argument behind his proposal is that Nigeria should establish the actual cost of producing and delivering petroleum products domestically instead of automatically passing international benchmark prices to consumers.
He called for an independent forensic audit of the entire petroleum value chain, covering crude exploration and production, contracting, procurement, security, transportation, refining, storage, insurance, pipelines and distribution.
“Show Nigerians the books. Publish the production cost. Publish refinery cost. Publish transportation. Publish insurance. Publish every margin. Let the data speak,” he said.
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Olawepo Hashim’s proposal comes as the price of petrol remains one of the most politically sensitive issues ahead of the 2027 elections. The debate has intensified over whether Nigeria can achieve lower pump prices through domestic refining, crude pricing reforms and greater transparency without recreating the fiscal burden and alleged abuses associated with the former subsidy regime.
His proposed N605 starting price, coupled with the longer term N200 to N300 target, is likely to inject another contentious proposal into the emerging 2027 debate over how Nigeria should manage its oil resources and protect consumers from high energy costs.
