President Bola Tinubu is leading Peter Obi by just 13 votes in the latest Oxford Metro Analytics public pulse, producing an extraordinary photo finish between the two leading figures as political activity around the 2027 presidential election gathers momentum.
The latest figures put Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate, on 21,619 votes, while Obi of the NDC has 21,606 votes. Atiku Abubakar of the ADC is third with 15,264 votes.
The 13-vote margin is striking given the size of the participation recorded on the platform. Oxford Metro currently shows 59,890 live votes, meaning the difference between the first and second candidates represents only a tiny fraction of the total responses.
Tinubu and Obi have collectively attracted 43,225 votes, placing them far ahead of every other political figure being tracked. Atiku’s 15,264 votes put him firmly in third, while Sowore, Makinde and Jonathan remain considerably behind the leading trio.
The latest figures therefore present two competing narratives. One is that Tinubu continues to hold the national lead among participants on the platform. The other is that the president has been unable to establish a substantial numerical advantage over Obi, whose figure has now moved to within just 13 votes of the incumbent.
The regional breakdown makes the national photo finish even more intriguing. Tinubu commands 47.7 per cent in the North West, where Atiku records 32.9 per cent. Tinubu also maintains a strong position in the South West, while Obi’s strongest support comes from the South East and South South.
The North Central is another potentially significant zone because the contest between Tinubu and Obi is much tighter there than in some other regions. The latest figures show Tinubu on 36.3 per cent, compared with Obi’s 34.4 per cent, leaving the president with only a narrow advantage among participants from the region.
Atiku’s strength in the North East gives him a distinct regional base. The former vice president records 50.4 per cent in the zone, significantly ahead of Obi’s 28.4 per cent, creating a picture in which the three leading figures have developed markedly different geographical strengths.
The national numbers are also being driven by varying levels of participation from different parts of the country. Oxford Metro tracks responses across all six geopolitical zones and the FCT, with state information supplied by participants. The platform says its system monitors duplicate votes, bot activity and suspicious patterns.
Whether the 13 vote difference widens or disappears as more Nigerians participate will therefore be closely watched by political observers and supporters. A further narrowing could provide fresh ammunition for those arguing that the 2027 race is already shaping into a highly competitive contest.
However, the figures should be interpreted within the limitations set out by Oxford Metro itself. The platform says the public pulse is not scientific polling, is not an official election result and is not intended to represent the eventual outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
